PPG Insights

Quarter 3 2021 Market Overview
Another COVID Wave Fails to Derail the Rally in the Third Quarter

We hope this letter finds all of you happy and healthy in these trying times. It’s cliché to say time flies but I can’t believe we’re here in October watching the leaves change color, preparing for our PPG pumpkin carving party and making preparations for our annual holiday dinner. While we did deal with a spike in Covid cases due to the Delta variant, it has been relatively quiet on the news front which is a nice change of pace after the previous 18 months. It does appear that the Delta variant is now on the downswing and we hope that means we can all enjoy some more normal holiday traditions with family and friends this year. We are all in the office and enjoy seeing you here again. This is traditionally a very busy stretch for us, but we are looking forward to slowing down later this quarter and we hope you all can as well. With any luck, the markets will provide us all with more treats than tricks in the fourth quarter.

The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs again in the third quarter as investors looked past a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and instead focused on the positive combination of a resilient economic recovery, ongoing historic support from the Federal Reserve, and strong corporate earnings. Market volatility did notably pick up during the final few weeks of September, however, reminding investors that the transition to a post-pandemic “new normal” isn’t always going to be smooth.

Stocks moved steadily higher to start the third quarter as the U.S. economy continued to return to prepandemic levels of activity while corporate earnings remained solid. To that point, second quarter earnings results, which were released in mid-to-late July, were stronger than expected and broadly did not show signs of the margin compression that some analysts feared might hurt corporate profitability. Additionally, at the July FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that, despite economic progress, it was not yet time for the Fed to begin to reduce Quantitative Easing (QE), thereby ensuring the economy and markets would continue to enjoy full Fed support until late 2021. Those factors helped investors look past an increase in COVID-19 cases, especially across the Sunbelt, as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high in late July.

That positive momentum for markets continued in August, powered by similar factors: positive corporate commentary, solid economic activity, and continued supportive Fed rhetoric. Those forces again combined to help markets look past a further increase in COVID-19 cases. Unlike during the COVID-19 waves of 2020 and early 2021, government authorities did not re-impose economic restrictions or lockdowns in response to rising case counts. Instead, most policy responses centered around mask mandates, and as such, the economic headwinds from rising COVID-19 cases were mild compared to previous episodes. Meanwhile, politics once again became a focus of the markets in August. The Senate passed a $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill that would be the framework for potential changes to tax rates, entitlements, and climate policy. But what passed in August merely set the stage for the looming policy battle once Congress returned from the summer recess. Given that, stocks were able to look past future policy risks and climb steadily higher throughout the month with the S&P 500 ending August essentially at all-time highs.

The market tone changed in September, however, as many of the positive factors that supported stocks earlier in the quarter began to fade. First, corporate commentary turned more cautious last month. Profit warnings that cited supply chain constraints and margin compression came from multiple industries, and that caused investors to become more concerned about the outlook for corporate earnings. Then, economic data from August showed that the rise in COVID-19 cases had weighed slightly on the economic recovery. Finally, after investors ignored the looming policy battle in August, politics once again became an influence on markets as Democrats unveiled new details on a $3.5 trillion spending and tax plan that included increases to the corporate tax, personal income taxes for high wage earners, and changes to capital gains and inheritance taxes. Those factors weighed on markets initially in September, but the volatility was compounded by the news that the second-largest property developer in China, Evergrande, was likely going to default on debt payments. Fear of potential financial market contagion hit stocks in late September and the S&P 500 suffered its first 5% pullback in nearly a year. Markets remained volatile into the end of the quarter as the Federal Reserve confirmed market expectations that it will begin to reduce Quantitative Easing before year-end, while Washington approached the looming deadline of a government shutdown with no extension in sight, although that was avoided in the last few days of the quarter. The S&P 500 finished September with moderate losses but gains from July and August more than offset the September losses and the index still logged a positive return for the third quarter.

In sum, the market remained resilient in the third quarter, but the final few weeks of September served as a reminder to investors that markets will face the resolution of numerous macroeconomic unknowns in the fourth quarter, and while fundamentals remain decidedly positive, we are still dealing with supply chain issues, policy uncertainty and the fallout from a global pandemic. We are still very constructive on the global economic backdrop, but there may still be some bumps in the road along the way.

Third Quarter Performance Review/p>

The last few days of the third quarter had a substantial impact on quarterly index returns. For the majority of the third quarter, the Nasdaq had solidly outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors continued a trend from the second quarter by moving to less economically sensitive large-cap tech shares. However, during the last week of the quarter, as global bond yields rose, there was heavy selling in tech shares as investors rotated into other market sectors. The Nasdaq still slightly outperformed the S&P 500 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a negative return for the third quarter thanks to the late September sell-off.

By market capitalization, large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks in the third quarter. In fact, small-cap stocks had a negative return for the quarter as rising COVID-19 cases, mixed economic data, and the prospects of eventually higher interest rates caused investors to favor large-cap stocks as the outlook for future economic growth became less certain.

From an investment-style standpoint, growth outperformed value in the third quarter, thanks to tech sector gains, although the amount of that outperformance shrunk considerably during the final week of the quarter as tech shares declined.

On a sector level, performance was more mixed than the previous two quarters as six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors realized positive returns in the third quarter, with financials leading the way higher. For much of the third quarter, the tech sector outperformed, but as bond yields rose in late September, financial stocks rallied on the prospect of higher interest rates and overtook tech as the best performing sector in the quarter. Healthcare also performed well, bolstered by strength in pharmaceutical stocks following more COVID-19 vaccine mandates and booster shot approvals.

Sector laggards included the industrials and the materials sectors, both of which finished with negative returns for the third quarter. Uncertainty surrounding the strength of the ongoing economic recovery in the face of higher COVID cases pressured industrials initially in the third quarter, as did a lack of passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. Meanwhile, the materials sector declined late in the third quarter on Chinese economic growth concerns following the Evergrande debt drama. Broadly speaking, cyclical sectors, those most sensitive to changes in economic growth, lagged more defensive sectors in the third quarter due to the uncertainty of the economic recovery in the face of the COVID wave in July and August.

As of 9/30/2021

US Equity Indexes

Q3 Return

YTD

S&P 500

0.58%

15.92%

DJ Industrial Average

-1.46%

12.12%

NASDAQ 100

1.09%

14.58%

S&P MidCap 400

-1.85%

15.21%

Russell 2000

-4.36%

12.41%

Source: YCharts

Internationally, foreign markets declined in the third quarter. Emerging markets dropped sharply, initially on concerns that rising COVID-19 cases would derail the global recovery, but late in the quarter, emerging markets fell even further on Chinese growth worries that stemmed from the Evergrande debt issues. Foreign developed markets, meanwhile, declined modestly during the final few weeks of the quarter on general global growth concerns combined with potentially higher global interest rates. Switching to fixed income markets, most bond classes were little changed in the third quarter. The majority of bond indices were solidly higher through mid-September as investors rotated to safety following the rise in COVID-19 cases in July and August. But in late September, the Federal Reserve confirmed tapering of Quantitative Easing will begin this year. That, combined with still-high inflation statistics, weighed on fixed income markets during the final few days of the third quarter which erased most of the quarter-to-date returns for many bond indices.

As of 9/30/2021

International Equity Indexes

Q3 Return

YTD

MSCI EAFE TR USD (Foreign Developed)

-0.35%

8.79%

MSCI EM TR USD (Emerging Markets)

-7.97%

-0.99%

MSCI ACWI Ex USA TR USD (Foreign Dev & EM)

-2.88%

6.29%

Source: YCharts

Switching to fixed income markets, most bond classes were little changed in the third quarter. The majority of bond indices were solidly higher through mid-September as investors rotated to safety following the rise in COVID-19 cases in July and August. But in late September, the Federal Reserve confirmed tapering of Quantitative Easing will begin this year. That, combined with still-high inflation statistics, weighed on fixed income markets during the final few days of the third quarter which erased most of the quarter-to-date returns for many bond indices.

Looking deeper into the bond markets, longer-duration bonds and shorter duration bonds had very similar returns in the third quarter. For most of the quarter, longer-term bonds outperformed shorter-term bonds on the growing expectation that the Fed would begin to taper QE late in 2021, and that interest rates would start to rise in late 2022. But the late-September rise in global bond yields resulted in a moderate drop in longer-dated bonds, which erased the earlier outperformance over short-duration bonds.

In the corporate debt markets, higher-yielding, lower-quality bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds thanks to a late September drop in investment-grade following the rise in global bond yields, as investors rotated out of lower-yielding, yet higher-credit quality corporate debt as global yields rose.

As of 9/30/2021

US Bond Indexes

Q2 Return

YTD

BBgBarc US Agg Bond

0.05%

-1.55%

BBgBarc US T-Bill 1-3 Mon

0.01%

0.03%

ICE US T-Bond 7-10 Year

-0.21%

3.50%

BBgBarc US MBS (Mortgage-backed)

0.10%

-0.67%

BBgBarc Municipal

-0.27%

0.79%

BBgBarc US Corporate Invest Grade

0.00%

-1.27

BBgBarc US Corporate High Yield

0.89%

4.53%

Source: YCharts

4th Quarter Market Outlook

Market performance in the third quarter reflected continued improvement in the macroeconomic outlook as a society, the economy, and risk assets showed resilience in the face of another wave of COVID-19, while corporate earnings were better than expected. However, that resilient performance should not be taken as a signal that risks no longer remain. In fact, the next three months will bring important clarity on several unknowns including future Federal Reserve policy, taxes, the pandemic, and inflation.

Regarding the still ongoing pandemic, COVID-19 remains a risk for the economy and the markets. Positively, effective vaccines have allowed policymakers to avoid re-implementing economic lockdowns that could hurt corporate earnings and the economy. But the risk remains that a new COVID-19 variant renders the vaccines less effective and that would put the economic recovery in jeopardy.

Yet while risks remain, as they always do, macroeconomic fundamentals are still decidedly positive and it is important to remember that a well-executed and diversified, long-term financial plan can overcome bouts of even intense volatility such as we’ve seen over the last two years.

We understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this still-challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even temporary bouts of volatility like we experienced during the height of the pandemic are unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.

Therefore, it’s critical for you to stay invested, remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.

The economic and medical progress achieved so far in 2021 notwithstanding, we remain vigilant towards risks to portfolios and the economy, and we thank you for your ongoing confidence and trust. Rest assured the entire team here at PPG will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.

Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.

Warmest Regards, Michael Dembro Chief Investment Officer, PPG Registered Representative, RJFS

Material created by Sevens, an independent third party as of June 30, 2021.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Holding investments for the long term does not insure a profitable outcome. Keep in mind that there is no assurance that any strategy will ultimately be successful or profitable nor protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The S&P MidCap 400® provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index, which is distinct from the large-cap S&P 500®, measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 6,211 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non convertible. The ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index is part of a series of indices intended to assess the U.S. Treasury market. The Index is market value weighted and is designed to measure the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed rate securities with minimum term to maturity greater than seven years and less than or equal to ten years. The ICE U.S. Treasury Bond Index Series has an inception date of December 31, 2015. Index history is available back to December 31, 2004.

The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond is an unmanaged index of all investment grade municipal securities with at least 1 year to maturity. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks agency mortgage backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon and vintage. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt, is unmanaged, with dividends reinvested, and is not available for purchase. The index includes both corporate and non-corporate sectors. The corporate sectors are Industrial, Utility and Finance, which include both U.S. and non-U.S. corporations. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. A Corporate Bond Index measures the investment-grade, fixed rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. The LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price are the global benchmark prices for unallocated gold and silver delivered in London. SS&P GSCI Crude Oil is an index tracking changes in the spot price for crude oil. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Past Performance does not guarantee future results. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.